2004 Vancouver Canadians outfielder/lead-off man Nick Blasi was a real fan favourite that season.

Adept at getting on base, even without swinging his bat, and prone to peeling off foul tip after foul tip when he needed to in order to keep an at bat alive (and a pitcher gassed), Blasi was actually my favourite player to watch in ‘04 - in a team filled with future major-leaguers (Kurt Suzuki, Dallas Braden, Jason Windsor, Gregorio Petit, Danny Putnam, etc), no less. 

But Blasi struggled beyond short season ball, posting decent but not outstanding stats in upper levels, falling behind others of his draft class, and generally looking like he wasn’t long for minor league ball.

Until something changed. Getting temporarily promoted to Triple-A ball to fill an injury hole, Blasi lit up, hitting for power and average, and eventually getting himself not only a regular start in the almost-MLB level of ball, but also the title of AAA Championship MVP as the Sacramento Rivercats won it all.

Which led me to hypothesize that he was on the brink of the majors.

I was wrong.

When 2008 rolled around, Blasi was back in Trible-A ball, and though he was hitting below average in a small number of games, it was clear he wasn’t at the top of Oakland’s plans. Especially when they released him a few weeks into the season.

Why? I was baffled. Here was a guy who had taken his chances and dominated Triple-A. He was a fundamental piece of that championship team. He was ready to step up. And then he was cut.

I didn’t get it at all, until just now, after reading an article on Scout.com’s Oakland Clubhouse. It’s behind a subscription wall, so you can’t get the whole thing, but here’s Blasi’s piece:

Nick Blasi was released earlier this year by the A’s and, like Beattie, has bounced around some, already spending time in the Mariners and White Sox organizations … One gigantic red flag for Blasi entering the season was his strikeout rate. Generally, players with high walk rates strikeout a lot because they work deep counts, and players with excellent power strike out a lot when they swing for the fences. When a player with a high strikeout rate doesn’t have many walks or much power, the strikeouts are a product of a lack of hitting skill rather than a tradeoff for secondary skills. Blasi’s strikeout-to-walk ratio in 2007 was greater than 3:1, and he posted a punchless .090 Isolated Power, so it was clear that the strikeouts were not a product of patience or power, but instead an indication that Blasi is often overmatched. Statistical analysts like myself often refer to batting average on balls in play causing pitchers to have fluke good or bad years, but it can happen for hitters too. Hitters have more control of their BABIP than pitchers do, so fluke hitter seasons are much rarer, but they do occur, and Blasi’s 2007 Sacramento performance (which consisted of only 89 games) may be a very good example.

In 2008, Blasi seems to have unfortunately proved the red flags to be justified. Even when adjusting for his home park, his batting average for his 29-game Sacramento stint rose from .238 to just .257, and his adjusted UVI was a meager .328. Released by the A’s, he spent six games playing for Triple-A Tacoma (Mariners) with a .341 UVI before moving to Triple-A Charlotte (White Sox), where his UVI has improved to .380, which still falls well short of average.

Blasi’s story serves as a statistical lesson: When a player struggles for four years in the low minors and then puts up a nice batting average in 89 Triple-A games, he doesn’t automatically become a good prospect. Blasi needs to cut his strikeout rate while adding some power and plate discipline if he wants to play in the big leagues. He’s still only 26, so he has maybe one more year to figure it out.

For the rest of the article, which includes discussion of ex-A’s prospects like Kevin Melillo (’04 C’s, now with the Jays), John Baker (’02 C’s, now with the Marlins), Luke Appert (’03 C’s, now with the Phillies), Eddie Cornejo (’03 C’s, now with the Rockies), Mark Kiger (’02 C’s, now in AA with the Mariners), Dustin Majewski (’02 C’s, now with the Rangers) , and others (Rouse, Spanos, Stavisky, Perry to name but a few), go here and sign-up for Scout.