I guess it must be hard for ESPN to keep their standards high, especially now, when there’s not a lot happening in the ‘Hot Stove’ that is baseball’s off-season. But honestly, surely the guys in suits in Connecticut have a lazy $30k lying around to throw at someone who actually understands baseball and is prepared to vet their content before it’s posted, thus saving the cable sports giant from looking foolish on a daily basis?
Today’s episode in the annals of "Why ESPN needs to be burned" is Keith Law’s look at the state of each major league baseball team’s farm system.
Oh joy - a guy with the claim to fame that he was JP Ricciardi’s ’special assistant’ back in the day when their fortunes hung on Luke Prokopec’s gammy arm is going to tell us how worthy our farm system is? Isn’t that kind of like having Brian Sabean writing an article on how to start a youth movement? Or maybe having Bill Bavasi write about how to make that ‘killer deal’ that turns your season around?
Anyway, so Law says the A’s have the #21 ranked farm system, which in and of itself I wouldn’t argue too hard about (the upper end of the system is still hurting, but only because so many rookies have zipped up to the majors in the last few seasons), but his theory that:
"Their 2003 class was a huge bust, and their first three picks in 2004 are all probably washouts as well, with the fourth pick in that draft, Huston Street, already comfortably ensconced in the majors…"
…is just horsepucky.
First of all, who the hell judges a draft class on their ability to get to the majors in just two seasons?! And assuming you do, did he miss the impact Huston Street (who was the A’s third pick, not their fourth) made in just ONE SEASON? Did he not see #7 pick Jason Windsor hit the bigs last year, just three seasons after being drafted? Has he not noticed Kurt Suzuki, or Grapes Putnam, or Diamond Dallas Braden, or Richie ‘Robo’ Robnett looming on the horizon?
Let’s be honest - if the 2004 draft class ONLY brings the A’s Street and Windsor, that’s a huge success in itself.
In fact, look, I saw every single game that the 2004 draft class played in Vancouver - and I mean EVERY game - so I reckon I have a pretty good handle on who has talent, who was a bust, and who is headed up or out. In addition, as part of my research for this blog, I watch what those players have done since - I can tell you what Myron Leslie’s batting average was for every season since he debuted in the professional game - so here’s my educated one-line assessment: The 2004 draft class was a HUMUNGOUS success.
Check it, in the full version linked below.
Pick 1, 1st round: Landon Powell - he’s is in the system and moving in the right direction. Sure, he lost a year to injury (and a dumb injury at that), but it’s kinda hard to move forward when you can’t walk, and since his return he’s been just fine. Admittedly, he fluffed it in Fall Ball this season, but that’s hardly the kind of sample size that helps you judge a career. Powell can flat out hit, and his behind-the-plate D is just dandy, thanks for asking, so if you’re going to call him on whether he’s a success or failure, I’d lean towards fail - but it’s WAY too soon to call.
Pick 2. Richie Robnett - The A’s are taking their time with him,
because if he does what he can do, and stops doing what he shouldn’t,
he’ll be Bonds all over again. The kid is a BEAST. Watching him pound
San Fran’s closer into deep center field for a run-scoring double
pre-season in 2006 should tell you all you need to know. Success, and you don’t even wanna know how big he’s going to be by the time Todd Steverson is done mentoring him.
Pick 3. Putnam has played just great every season, and will likely find himself in AAA at some point in 2007. A couple of injuries slowed him, but he has genuine ability and will likely find hiimself as a Kielty-type role player, if not for the A’s, then for someone who is looking for good contact and occasional power. Moderate success with time on his side.
Pick 4. Huston Street - made the bigs in one season, made closer within months. If not a humungous success, then what?
Pick 5. Mike Rogers - Feh. You can’t win ‘em all. Failed, but still a shot at turning it around.
Pick 6. Kurt Suzuki - On the fast track for the majors. Rampaging success, and getting better every season.
Pick 7. Jason Windsor - Already been in the majors. Success.
Pick 8. Ryan Webb - Picked out of high school, so he’s got a lot of seasons to play with, but managed to add a few MPH to his fastball last year in instructionals, bringing him the Most Improved Player nod from A’s coaches. Write him off at your peril - Too soon to call.
Pick 9. Kevin Mellilo - In 2005, he was one of the hardest-hitting mofos in the minors. In 2006, he reverted to the bell curve. Ain’t no rush on him, especially with Mark Ellis in Gold Glove form in the majors, but it’s too soon to call him a failure or success just now - 2007 will be the make or break season. I’m leaning towards ‘make’ - he just whomped all pitching in 2005 at three different levels, and that don’t come without something behind it.
Pick 10. Derek Tharpe. Bust.
Pick 11. Jarod McAuliff. Bust.
Pick 12. Myron Leslie - Rampaging in Stockton after a shift to the outfield. Headed for AA, and right on schedule. Too soon to call.
Pick 13. Chad Boyd - Another pick out of high school, so he’s in no rush, but I’ve seen enough of this kid to know that if he is given even a tiny chance to progress, he’s going to take it. The biggest gamer in the system. Too soon to call.
Pick 14. Tommy Everidge - See Leslie, Myron. These two are doing the exact same thing - demonstrating increasing power, moving through the system as required, and not rushing themselves. T-Mobile will be in AA in 2007, and he’s one good half a season away from being on the cusp of a Dan Johnson replacement. Too soon to call, but I’m leaning success.
Pick 27. Diamond Dallas Braden - If not for injury, would have followed Windsor to the bigs, as his screwball was killing all comers are the lower levels. Success - just watch.
Every team, every draft class, has at least half of their top 10 draft picks backfire on them - it’s just the way it goes. But VERY few have a Huston Street, very few have a Jason Windsor, and very few have the embarassment of riches at catcher that gives them the best two college catchers in the game for a given year.
It’s funny, but every year we hear about how terrible Oakland’s farm system is, but every year we see a good half of their teams make playoffs. Heck, in 2004, every team in the A’s system, from Arizona on up, made it to playoffs. For mine, this annual slight is down to lazy writers like Keith Law taking a cursory look at the names in the system and saying to themselves, "Hmm, there’s no Lastings Milledge in this batch - who the hell is Dallas Braden anyway?"
Hell man, you write for ESPN! I know from personal conversations with Hunter S. Thompson back in the day that they have NO editorial oversight and pay surprisingly little, but have a little pride, Keith! I mean, geez, they’ve listed you as ‘premium content’ - the least you could do is earn the money that people have to pay to read your twelve-second-assessment.







1 user commented in " ESPN: The Worldwide Leader in Dumb "
Follow-up comment rss or Leave a TrackbackNice post Oz,
2004 was 2002 “Moneyball†redux. They had several high picks and had to still be somewhat economical in the cash outlays.
Suzuki, Street, Windsor, Braden, Mellilo, and Connor Robertson were all undoubtedly very good picks for their spots. If Chad Boyd can hit in AA, then he becomes a clear success at his slot.
Powell is hard to know, but I’d be surprised if he didn’t become a slightly better Adam Melhuse. Powell was a cheap sign anyway to conserve money for other picks.
Robnett? Who knows? I think by June of this year we’ll know how he projects. He looked good in AA before going down for the season.
Webb to my untrained eye, has makeup issues. He has a great pitcher’s body and plenty of juice in his arm, but he gets frazzled easy and stops trusting his stuff.
Putnam? can hit some. Can’t do much else.
Street and Windsor already made the draft decent, to become a really good draft, we need a little more. The key to the draft though is Suzuki. If he is a legit starter for the A’s, then the draft was a clear success. Anyone else Robnett, Mellilo, Putnam, Braden, Robertson, Powell chips in on the big club, and it’s just extra.
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