Fans of Oakland baseball who care enough to pay attention to the minors, and the drafted players who fill the system, will probably be aware of the name Justin Smoak. After all, in a sea of signed college draft players, Smoak stands out like a sore thumb as an unsigned anomaly.

Sure, there are still a handful of hold-outs among the top ten, looking for more money and guarantees on things such as finishing college and playing in their favorite positions, and at the back of the pack sit a handful of after-thought picks who the A’s won’t sign unless they have a distinct need for them (read: the top picks refuse to sign), but in the middle of all that sits 16th round draft pick, Smoak.

Why is he holding out? Let’s have Baseball America tell you the story:

Predraft deals are against baseball’s rules regarding the draft, but those rules are routinely ignored as teams and agents (euphemistically referred to as advisers to preserve players’ NCAA eligibility) discuss the parameters of deals in the days and weeks before the draft.

Smoak’s first strong predraft inquiry came through his adviser from Oakland, which was prepared to offer him $950,000 as the 36th overall pick, a supplemental first-rounder the team received for losing free agent Damian Miller. Smoak balked at the amount and slid to the 16th round, where he went to . . . the Athletics, who apparently still have designs on signing him. A’s general manager Billy Beane talked with Smoak the day after the draft, and planned to meet with him at a high school all-star game a week later.

Smoak and his family made it clear his attachment to South Carolina–and to a lesser extent, Havens–would not easily be broken."I’ll sign for one million dollars, and nothing less,” Smoak says. “Right now I’m planning to follow my dreams to South Carolina and play for Ray Tanner. Coach Tanner has been in constant touch with me and I’ve always wanted to play at South Carolina.”

Now, let me make this abundantly clear - there’s no way Billy Beane is going to sign a 16th rounder to a $1m contract, no matter that the kid should have been a first rounder, and here’s why: If he did, every player in front of Smoak in the draft would expect a better deal, and every player drafted next year would hold Smoak’s deal as the standard by which their own should be based. You simply can’t give a 16th round draft pick a million and not expect the #4 pick to demand three.

Meanwhile, Smoak is in no hurry to sign a professional contract, regardless of how Oakland have made it clear they value him. He knows that his .558 high school average and 18 homerun record won’t have to be matched in college for him to move up in the next draft to a top ten spot - he’ll only have to hit around .300 and show a little pop to be proven as a good thing, and that will equate to a whole lot more money than a million bucks next time around.

So the options for Oakland are either spend big and cause their entire draft strategy to explode in cost, or let Smoak go be a hero for someone else.

And that’s why you won’t see Smoaky the Bear in Vancouver this season.

UPDATE:
According to The State, Smoak is denying rumors that he’s reached an agreement with the A’s.

Despite published reports that the Oakland A’s have met former Stratford standout Justin Smoak’s signing-bonus demand, the all-state first baseman and USC signee said Thursday he has had no recent contact with A’s officials and intends to enroll at USC next month.

Smoak, who plummeted to the 16th round of the draft after saying a $1 million bonus would persuade him to skip college, said he last spoke to A’s general manager Billy Beane "two or three weeks" ago when he reaffirmed his desire to play college baseball. "I told him I really wanted to go to school and that I really wanted to play at South Carolina," said Smoak, who had been projected as high as a late-first-round pick. "I didn’t feel like stressing out about it all summer and waiting to the last minute."

Smoak, who said he recently went through student orientation at USC, batted .558 with 18 home runs during his senior year at Stratford. He is playing this summer for the South Carolina Diamond Devils. "I doubt I’ll hear back from (the A’s)," he said. "In August, right now, I’m going to South Carolina."

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is that. No Smoak, no fire.